Development and validation of a novel death risk stratification scale in patients with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: a 14-year ambispective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a simple and effective death risk stratification scale for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). METHODS: In this ambispective cohort study, we investigated the epidemiological and clinical data of 2245 patients with HFRS (1873 enrolled retrospectively and constituting the training cohort, 372 prospectively recruited as the validation cohort) from September 2008 to December 2021, and identified independent risk factors for 30-day death of HFRS. Using logistic regression analysis, a nomogram prediction model was established and was further simplified into a novel scoring scale. Calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic curve, net reclassification index, integrated discrimination index, and decision curve analysis were used to assess the calibration, discrimination, precision, and clinical utility in both training and validation cohorts. RESULTS: Of 2245 patients with HFRS, 132 (5.9%) died during hospitalization. The nomogram prediction model and scoring scale were developed using six predictors: comorbid hypertension, hypotensive shock, hypoxemia, neutrophils, aspartate aminotransferase, and activated partial thromboplastin time. Both the scale and nomogram were well calibrated (near-diagonal calibration curves) and demonstrated significant predictive values (areas under receiver operating characteristic curves >0.9, sensitivity and specificity >90% in the training cohort and >84% in the validation cohort). The simplified scoring scale demonstrated equivalent discriminative ability to the nomogram, with net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index of 0.022 and 0.007 in the training cohort, 0.126 and 0.022 in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis graphically represented significant clinical utility and comparable net benefits of the nomogram and scoring scale across a range of threshold probabilities. DISCUSSION: This evidence-based, factor-weighted, accurate score could help clinicians swiftly stratify HFRS mortality risk and facilitate the implementation of patient triage and tiered medical services during epidemic peaks.

Common Environmental Effects on Quantum Thermal Transistor.

Quantum thermal transistor is a microscopic thermodynamical device that can modulate and amplify heat current through two terminals by the weak heat current at the third terminal. Here we study the common environmental effects on a quantum thermal transistor made up of three strong-coupling qubits. It is shown that the functions of the thermal transistor can be maintained and the amplification rate can be modestly enhanced by the skillfully designed common environments. In particular, the presence of a dark state in the case of the completely correlated transitions can provide an additional external channel to control the heat currents without any disturbance of the amplification rate. These results show that common environmental effects can offer new insights into improving the performance of quantum thermal devices.